Technical Analysis Reveals Key Levels for Dogecoin
Technical analyst Kevin, known on X as @Kev_Capital_TA, points out what he refers to as “a low at the exact level that we were eyeing for the last couple of months.” In a recent post that accompanied a chart, he highlighted a critical intersection between the macro 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement—calculated from the all-time high in 2021 to last year’s low—and a longstanding falling resistance line that has provided support since the bear market’s depths. The spot price reached $0.138, matching the 0.382 retracement level, before bouncing back to the current range of $0.18.
Potential Path to $1 for Dogecoin
Kevin believes that the momentum indicators on higher time frames are starting to show a positive shift. He noted, “The weekly RSI has hit the same level where it found a low during the bear market, and each time the price reaches this point, it does so at progressively higher levels.” He pointed out that the relative strength index is forming higher troughs even as the price increases incrementally. Additionally, the one-week Stochastic RSI has already indicated a bullish crossover, with a two-week crossover on the horizon, a pattern that historically has preceded significant rallies for the memecoin.
Favorable Risk-Reward Ratio
From a risk-reward standpoint, Kevin asserts that the situation remains attractive. He mentioned, “As I indicated weeks ago, the risk-reward ratio for DOGE was exceptional, as the potential downside was minimal while the upside was substantial.” He revealed that members of his Patreon community had made a “sizeable entry at 0.15 cents” with a stop-loss set at break-even. He believes that the only element needed for continued momentum is favorable macroeconomic data: “Positive macro data is essential to maintain momentum and will accelerate the process.”
Resistance Levels and Fibonacci Analysis
The chart presents a series of overhead Fibonacci extension and retracement levels that outline potential resistance areas should the current rebound evolve into a trend reversal. The first and nearest resistance is the 50 percent retracement at $0.19039, which aligns with the underside of a broken trend line, making it a crucial technical threshold. Furthermore, the 61.8 percent retracement, around $0.26216, represents a key golden-ratio boundary that typically differentiates corrective rallies from primary uptrends. A smaller cluster at the 65 percent level, marked on Kevin’s chart at $0.28522, signifies an intermediate challenge before the price can target the deeper 78.6 percent retracement near $0.41339—an area aligned with the distribution range from early 2022.
Key Influencers for Dogecoin’s Future
If Dogecoin manages to reclaim the aforementioned zone, the complete 100 percent retracement at approximately $0.73839 would recover the entirety of its previous decline, while a shaded violet area above $1 indicates the extension territory that would initiate price discovery. Kevin’s analysis extends beyond just the DOGE pair. In another update, he set a short-term target for Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) at 65.45 percent, labeling it as “the macro .786 FIB.” He anticipates this level will act as resistance, providing a window for altcoins to gain traction. For Dogecoin supporters, any slowdown in Bitcoin’s market share could redirect liquidity toward the meme-asset sector, precisely as the technical landscape improves.
Current Market Context
Despite the recent recovery, Kevin emphasizes that neither Bitcoin nor the broader altcoin market has entered a parabolic phase reminiscent of previous cycles. He stated, “At no point have BTC or altcoins moved into a parabolic stage,” attributing this subdued movement to “monetary policy and a lack of liquidity, resulting in reduced social risk.” However, he envisions a shift in this dynamic as “global liquidity begins to rise and monetary policy starts to ease,” although he warns that the timeline has been extended due to what he describes as “the errors made by central banks and governments during and after the pandemic.”
For now, the memecoin that originated as a joke remains closely tied to wider macroeconomic discussions. A base at the 0.382 Fibonacci level combined with a synchronized momentum reset offers a technical foundation. Nevertheless, Kevin’s outlook—and Dogecoin’s journey towards higher Fibonacci targets of $0.26, $0.41, and beyond—ultimately relies on the broader cycle providing the liquidity that has been notably absent until now. At the time of reporting, DOGE was trading at $0.175.
